2010: the year of the mobile

The trend to smaller connected devices will continue this year, as the likes of Nokia, Google and Apple deliver their new products Desktop computers are so last decade. 2010 is shaping up to be the year when internet users move decisively away from bulky machines to the mobile web. The trend towards portable, mini-laptops and devices that allow you to surf the web on the go will accelerate in 2010 as companies slug it out in the key battleground of smartphones, analysts predict. The recession barely dented the appetite for smartphones in 2009 and the handset market will once again capture the imagination of many consumers as Apple's iPhone competitors try once more to retake the high-ground. We are now in the "early innings" of the development of the mobile internet, according to a recent report from investment group Morgan Stanley, after the evolution of the PC and the desktop internet. The extensive report found that mobile internet - browsing the web from your handheld device - is ramping up faster than the desktop internet did a decade ago, as the key trends of 3G wireless connectivity, online social networking, video on handsets, voice calling on the internet and smartphones come together. "As 3G adoption hits inflection points in many markets, consumers are flocking to a broad range of IP- based usage models over powerful mobile Internet- enabled devices. We predict that smartphones will out-ship the global notebook and netbook market in 2010E and out-ship the global PC market (notebook and netbook and desktop) by 2012E," the report's authors said. First into the smartphone battle in 2010 will be Google and its Android operating system next week with the much-vaunted launch of the Nexus One smartphone. Google is expected to launch the handset in the US, made by manufacturer HTC to the company's specifications. The smartphone is expected to optimise Google's growing choice of applications for mobile devices and could present a credible rival to the iPhone. Google will reportedly sell the phone direct to consumers, bringing the internet search giant into the handset hardware business for the first time. Analysts said that Apple was leading mobile innovation with its iPhone and iPod Touch but in the next year or two the Google Android open operating system allied to device manufacturers could pose challenges to Apple's market share. The report said that RIM and its BlackBerry smartphones could maintain their lead in the enterprise market but could face difficulties longer term. Research firm Gartner predicted that worldwide mobile device sales to end users will have climbed to 1.214 billion units in 2009, only a decline of 0.67 per cent from 2008. Gartner and other analysts had forecast much steeper falls earlier in the year. The company now predicts sales in 2010 will show a 9 per cent increase from 2009. The Morgan Stanley report said: "Make no mistake, Apple and others are not just trying to upset the cell phone market. They are aiming to transform how communications works, how entertainment and news are distributed, how goods and services are purchased... and how we control all this stuff from the ever-expanding, rechargeable remote controls we carry in our hands." 2010 will be the year of the handset, according to Ilja Laurs, chief executive of GetJar, a company which provides more than 50,000 mobile applications across all major handsets and platforms to consumers in more than 200 countries. "If this year was all about apps, next year is all about handsets. Spurred on by the success of the iPhone, other manufacturers are focusing on features, design and the cool factor," he said. Some of the mobile phone sector's biggest players hope to start 2010 with a bang. Nokia's flashy N900 will hit the shelves in the UK in January as the Finnish company has yet another stab at reclaiming the high ground in its core market. The launch of the device, which is based on the Maemo open source operating system, will also provide some stiff competition for the iPhone when Vodafone offers it for free on a £35-a-month tariff in January. Meanwhile Samsung, which sold 200 million phones in 2009, looks set to take on Apple with a series of top-end phones based on Google's Android and its own Bada operating system. Mr Laurs said the importance of global mobile billing platforms will also increase as the sophistication of the paid-for services on the mobile internet increased. "For the ultimate growth and survival of the apps business - synchronised, global mobile billing is essential to ensure consumers can purchase content quickly and easily," he added. Tom Alexander, chief executive of Orange in the UK, expects mobile payments to become a reality over the coming decade, starting in 2010. "Today you pay for things by cash or on your credit card. Tomorrow, you'll use your mobile to buy the things you want, whether that's on the high street or the internet," he said. Yet even if the mobile payments market fails to blossom next year, the rise of near-field communications technology that allows contactless payments will gain pace, particularly with the London Olympics - a major showcase for that type of service - fast approaching. To start, consumers may start to swipe their phones to pay for bus or train tickets during 2010, with some trials of micro payments to buy one-off items like coffee also in the pipeline. However, perhaps the biggest breakthrough will revolve around a technology that has been around for well over a century. Orange will launch high-definition voice services in 2010, an improvement that has been described as echoing the leap from vinyl to CD in terms of quality. "Just as the current digital calling system we use superseded analogue, so will Hi Def supersede digital, with its crystal clear, superior sound quality - its introduction will herald a new era for mobile communications, and we'll be quick to forget what life was like before it," said Mr Alexander. The biggest event of the consumer tech year is expected to be Apple's launch of its tablet device. The company has declined to comment on multiple rumours about the device but it is thought to be similar to a enlarged iPod Touch, with a large, perhaps 10-inch colour touchscreen and wireless connectivity. Its price might be in the region of $900. [via: http://technology.timesonline.co.uk]